Technology has been able to successfully infiltrate global economy, creating a digital community of currencies called cryptocurrency. Bitcoin especially has enjoyed a popularity no one would believe it would ever garner when it was first introduced. Top firms, companies, organizations, governments and airlines now make as well as receive payments in bitcoins, and its exchange to the dollar and other national currencies has been so easy virtually everywhere in the world.
However, one big question every biotin enthusiast has asked is the certainty of its future as a form of payment and other forms of financial transactions. All tensions regarding such queries could be easily doused since it is possible to make a relatively accurate prediction about the future of bitcoin by conducting an analysis based on the five factors successfully implemented by technology adoption professionals, especially Everett Roger in his classic work of innovation diffusion theories. These include compatibility with other innovations, experiences through triability, relative advantage, complexity and observability.
Relative advantage in the context of innovation refer to the improvements a product has over its predecessors. These may include economic or social benefit quantified in form of time, convenience, monetary advantages or satisfaction. In a more specific approach, it could refer to better service, improved interface, reduced user effort, storage, consolidation of multiple functions, and so on.
In reference to the above, bitcoin has dealt other payment options big blow as a decentralized ledger. This means that a singer party is no longer in control of the records of
previous transactions. Basically, a centralized ledge possess vulnerabilities which decentralized ledgers trumps. Further bitcoin has lower transaction costs over its predecessors, making sure that no third party is involved. In fact, global users not necessarily having access to traditional bank accounts may benefit. Above all, users are not at all concerned about economic issues such as inflation, recession and others.
As concerned innovation, compatibility means that innovation requires adopters to make alterations in their lives to ensure that it suit its use. When an innovation is compatible, it is consistent with past experience and need of adopters. For instance, iPhone has been a big success basically because there are many devices that perform similar functions as it, but it incorporated all of their functions. Bitcoin is such a compatible innovation as adopter only need mobile phones and internet services to have access to it and they do not require any alteration in their own lives to use bitcoin.
As pertained to innovation, it refers to one whose benefits are clearly obvious to even non-users of the innovation. A case of electric cars and petrol cars are a very good example. In which case however, the observability factor in relation to bitcoin is less clear. It can only be used as an exchange medium in limited places in the United States, making it really difficult to be observed. In few other countries like Japan however, it is more used as a medium of exchange and possess other opportunities to be observed. It has further been discussed more on media and its benefits are widely known to potential users.
According to Rogers, simpler innovations have greater success chances than complex ones. This however doesn’t mean that an innovation should be washy. It only has to at least be user friendly and readily understood. In the case of bitcoin, it underlying blockchain technology and programming is quite complex and sophisticated but internet users can easily understand the consumer end of its transaction. A combination of technology ensure that it transaction is less intimidating even for novice, yet users may be reluctant to adopt the coin with a thorough understanding of the underlying framework.
This as defined by Roger refers to how well innovation can be experienced firsthand on limited basis. As for bitcoin, several white papers have made it really accessible since day one. Even today user friendly ATMs are used to trade and exchange bitcoins and other digital currencies. Truthfully speaking, direct purchase with bitcoin has been slow but it is also gradually increasing in many countries of the world.
Considering these five factors, it would be deduced that complexity and observability are still lagging as they have weaker support at the time. However, as digital currency continue to soar and attract attention, they should favor bitcoin adoption soonest. Based on these, it
could be inferred that bitcon is definitely here to stay. More so, now that competitors are emerging and regulations as well as global expansions are being considered, it is likely more than not to be a lasting innovation.